Skinstrack

CS2 Case ROI & Expected Value

What one opening of every CS2 case returns on average, priced live. Cost is the cheapest case price plus a $2.49 key.

#CaseExpected valueROI
1CS:GO Weapon Case 3CS:GO Weapon Case 3$9.57-33.2%
2eSports 2013 Winter CaseeSports 2013 Winter Case$9.27-33.5%
3CS:GO Weapon Case 2CS:GO Weapon Case 2$12.72-38.6%
4Glove CaseGlove Case$7.25-39.2%
5Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseOperation Vanguard Weapon Case$3.99-40.7%
6Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case$15.71-44.6%
7Operation Wildfire CaseOperation Wildfire Case$2.77-44.7%
8Gamma CaseGamma Case$2.77-46.8%
9Prisma CasePrisma Case$1.85-47.1%
10eSports 2014 Summer CaseeSports 2014 Summer Case$6.94-48.5%
11Chroma 2 CaseChroma 2 Case$2.89-48.9%
12Gamma 2 CaseGamma 2 Case$2.63-48.9%
13Shadow CaseShadow Case$1.96-50.2%
14Horizon CaseHorizon Case$1.89-50.5%
15Chroma CaseChroma Case$3.30-51.4%
16Operation Broken Fang CaseOperation Broken Fang Case$3.67-51.9%
17Chroma 3 CaseChroma 3 Case$2.59-52.9%
18Revolver CaseRevolver Case$2.33-53.1%
19Spectrum CaseSpectrum Case$2.63-53.1%
20Winter Offensive Weapon CaseWinter Offensive Weapon Case$5.20-53.5%
21Falchion CaseFalchion Case$1.79-53.9%
22Prisma 2 CasePrisma 2 Case$1.61-54.2%
23Operation Breakout Weapon CaseOperation Breakout Weapon Case$4.28-54.3%
24Shattered Web CaseShattered Web Case$2.89-54.4%
25Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseOperation Phoenix Weapon Case$2.65-54.7%
26Huntsman Weapon CaseHuntsman Weapon Case$4.35-54.8%
27Spectrum 2 CaseSpectrum 2 Case$2.25-55.9%
28Operation Riptide CaseOperation Riptide Case$4.35-56.7%
29Gallery CaseGallery Case$1.31-57.7%
30Snakebite CaseSnakebite Case$1.19-57.9%
31Dreams & Nightmares CaseDreams & Nightmares Case$1.36-60.7%
32Danger Zone CaseDanger Zone Case$1.35-61.0%
33CS20 CaseCS20 Case$1.28-61.1%
34Fever CaseFever Case$1.08-64.7%
35Recoil CaseRecoil Case$0.90-66.9%
36CS:GO Weapon CaseCS:GO Weapon Case$31.56-68.7%
37Clutch CaseClutch Case$0.92-68.8%
38Revolution CaseRevolution Case$0.80-69.7%
39eSports 2013 CaseeSports 2013 Case$12.57-70.4%
40Operation Bravo CaseOperation Bravo Case$15.51-70.9%
41Fracture CaseFracture Case$0.82-71.6%
42Kilowatt CaseKilowatt Case$0.70-73.0%

How the CS2 Case ROI calculator works

  1. 01

    Price every drop

    Every skin, knife and glove a case can drop is priced per wear and per StatTrak™ variant at the cheapest tracked marketplace.

  2. 02

    Weight by the real odds

    Each price is weighted by the published rarity odds, the 10% StatTrak™ chance and the wear distribution inside the skin's float range.

  3. 03

    Compare against the cost

    The expected value is set against the case price plus a $2.49 key, which gives the ROI of a single opening.

About CS2 case expected value

Expected value is the average amount one opening returns if you opened the case many times. It is not what a single opening pays: most openings land a Mil-Spec skin worth a fraction of the key, and the average is carried by rare Covert skins, knives and gloves.

Drop odds are the same for every weapon case: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife or gloves 0.26%. Within a rarity every skin is equally likely, and a weapon skin has a 10% chance of being StatTrak™.

The wear follows the community-measured float distribution (3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn, 16% Battle-Scarred over the full 0-1 range), mapped onto each skin's own float range. A skin that caps at 0.08 always drops Factory New or Minimal Wear.

Prices come from the same live feed as the rest of Skinstrack, across 34+ marketplaces, so the ROI moves with the market. Selling fees are not deducted.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How case ROI is calculated

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More free utilities built on the same live market data.

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Add the inputs of a trade-up contract and get every outcome with its odds, output float, wear and live price.

CS2 Extension

See the cheapest price from every marketplace right in your Steam inventory, trade offers and the Community Market.

3D skin viewer

Inspect any CS2 skin, knife, glove or agent in 3D. Set the float and pattern, add stickers and see it under real CS2 map lighting.