CS2 Case ROI & Expected Value

What one opening of every CS2 case returns on average, priced live. Cost is the cheapest case price plus a $2.49 key.

#	Case	Case price	Cost with key	Expected value	ROI
1	eSports 2013 Winter Case	$10.00	$12.49	$7.77	-37.8%
2	CS:GO Weapon Case 3	$10.73	$13.22	$7.86	-40.5%
3	Glove Case	$7.42	$9.91	$5.84	-41.0%
4	Operation Vanguard Weapon Case	$3.56	$6.05	$3.44	-43.1%
5	CS:GO Weapon Case 2	$16.03	$18.52	$10.12	-45.4%
6	Operation Wildfire Case	$2.11	$4.60	$2.45	-46.6%
7	Operation Hydra Case	$22.13	$24.62	$12.99	-47.3%
8	Gamma Case	$2.34	$4.83	$2.51	-48.1%
9	Prisma Case	$0.82	$3.31	$1.67	-49.5%
10	Gamma 2 Case	$2.37	$4.86	$2.37	-51.2%
11	eSports 2014 Summer Case	$9.27	$11.76	$5.72	-51.4%
12	Horizon Case	$1.10	$3.59	$1.71	-52.5%
13	Operation Riptide Case	$5.37	$7.86	$3.68	-53.2%
14	Chroma Case	$3.86	$6.35	$2.95	-53.5%
15	Prisma 2 Case	$0.80	$3.29	$1.53	-53.6%
16	Chroma 2 Case	$3.00	$5.49	$2.54	-53.7%
17	Revolver Case	$2.10	$4.59	$2.12	-53.7%
18	Shadow Case	$1.33	$3.82	$1.76	-54.0%
19	Falchion Case	$1.17	$3.66	$1.69	-54.0%
20	Spectrum Case	$2.78	$5.27	$2.42	-54.0%
21	Operation Broken Fang Case	$4.25	$6.74	$3.08	-54.3%
22	Operation Phoenix Weapon Case	$2.90	$5.39	$2.43	-54.9%
23	Chroma 3 Case	$2.63	$5.12	$2.30	-55.1%
24	Huntsman Weapon Case	$6.37	$8.86	$3.97	-55.2%
25	Operation Breakout Weapon Case	$6.16	$8.65	$3.85	-55.5%
26	Winter Offensive Weapon Case	$8.07	$10.56	$4.65	-55.9%
27	Shattered Web Case	$3.32	$5.81	$2.55	-56.2%
28	Spectrum 2 Case	$2.34	$4.83	$2.08	-57.0%
29	Gallery Case	$0.46	$2.95	$1.22	-58.6%
30	Snakebite Case	$0.25	$2.74	$1.09	-60.2%
31	Danger Zone Case	$0.77	$3.26	$1.26	-61.2%
32	CS20 Case	$0.57	$3.06	$1.16	-62.0%
33	Dreams & Nightmares Case	$0.66	$3.15	$1.17	-62.7%
34	Fever Case	$0.49	$2.98	$0.98	-67.0%
35	CS:GO Weapon Case	$91.00	$93.49	$27.79	-70.3%
36	Recoil Case	$0.19	$2.68	$0.79	-70.6%
37	Clutch Case	$0.35	$2.84	$0.83	-70.7%
38	Fracture Case	$0.30	$2.79	$0.75	-73.1%
39	Revolution Case	$0.12	$2.61	$0.69	-73.4%
40	Operation Bravo Case	$50.00	$52.49	$13.70	-73.9%
41	eSports 2013 Case	$37.47	$39.96	$10.36	-74.1%
42	Kilowatt Case	$0.06	$2.55	$0.63	-75.5%

How the CS2 Case ROI calculator works

01
Price every drop
Every skin, knife and glove a case can drop is priced per wear and per StatTrak™ variant at the cheapest tracked marketplace.
02
Weight by the real odds
Each price is weighted by the published rarity odds, the 10% StatTrak™ chance and the wear distribution inside the skin's float range.
03
Compare against the cost
The expected value is set against the case price plus a $2.49 key, which gives the ROI of a single opening.

About CS2 case expected value

Expected value is the average amount one opening returns if you opened the case many times. It is not what a single opening pays: most openings land a Mil-Spec skin worth a fraction of the key, and the average is carried by rare Covert skins, knives and gloves.

Drop odds are the same for every weapon case: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife or gloves 0.26%. Within a rarity every skin is equally likely, and a weapon skin has a 10% chance of being StatTrak™.

The wear follows the community-measured float distribution (3% Factory New, 24% Minimal Wear, 33% Field-Tested, 24% Well-Worn, 16% Battle-Scarred over the full 0-1 range), mapped onto each skin's own float range. A skin that caps at 0.08 always drops Factory New or Minimal Wear.

Prices come from the same live feed as the rest of Skinstrack, across 34+ marketplaces, so the ROI moves with the market. Selling fees are not deducted.

The case price here is the cheapest market's. For what every case costs on each market and how far Steam sits above it, see CS2 case prices across 16 markets.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How case ROI is calculated

Is opening CS2 cases profitable?

Usually not. For most cases the expected value is below the case price plus the $2.49 key, so the ROI is negative, and even a positive ROI only holds on average over many openings. The table above shows the live number for every case.

What are the CS2 case drop odds?

Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a rare special item (knife or gloves) 0.26%, about 1 in 385. Every weapon skin also has a 10% chance of being StatTrak™.

Does the ROI include the key?

Yes. The cost of an opening is the cheapest case price plus a $2.49 key.

Are knives and gloves included?

Yes. Every finish in the case's rare special pool is priced per wear and per StatTrak™ variant. Doppler finishes are priced from Phases 1-4 only (Ruby, Sapphire, Black Pearl and Emerald are left out, so those finishes read slightly low), and vanilla knives are not in the pool yet.

Related CS2 tools

More free utilities built on the same live market data.

CS2 Case ROI & Expected Value

How the CS2 Case ROI calculator works

Price every drop

Weight by the real odds

Compare against the cost